{"id":2798,"date":"2015-05-06T16:16:23","date_gmt":"2015-05-06T16:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/?p=2798"},"modified":"2015-05-06T16:16:23","modified_gmt":"2015-05-06T16:16:23","slug":"is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/","title":{"rendered":"“Is it raining?” and other strange election result predictors…"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a break from our usual focus on carbon reduction and renewable energy investment, this week I\u2019ve hijacked Renewable Money with a prediction about the UK general election tomorrow. You might not know that old hands from the politics circuit often used some very strange (but often accurate) election result predictors, and in a too-close-to-call election, they might actually work…<\/p>\n

When the polls & data won\u2019t cut it:<\/strong>
\nThese days the polls are pretty good (the closer you get to the election) but in a neck and neck tie, the poll margin of error means they\u2019re no help at all in giving a firm answer.<\/p>\n

We had a different approach at Tweetminster<\/a> (my former life in politics news monitoring). We predicted the 2010 result more accurately than YouGov by using an adapted predictive data methodology from the University of Tokyo (you can see the Guardian coverage here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

It turns out in any election, if all the candidates are on Twitter you can work out the winner with about a 92% probability of being right by simply counting the number of mentions they get. This is because (we discovered) the most popular candidate is also the most unpopular with the opposition. So both the candidate\u2019s supporters and detractors tend to mention them a lot. This created the strange quirk of social media data analysis that even if people are saying bad things about you, as long as they’re mentioning your name there\u2019s good chance you\u2019re in with a shout of winning.<\/p>\n

But in a contest where the candidates are even looking neck and neck on Twitter, it’s still too close to call. So here\u2019s the five best (and strangest) rules of thumb that I’ve heard whispered in newsrooms during my time in the Westminster media bubble:<\/p>\n

#1: Rain favours the Tories: <\/strong>
\nThis is the best one. It\u2019s based on the idea that Tories own more cars than Labour voters and so therefore are less likely to be put off by bad weather. So if it\u2019s looking like rain tomorrow, expect a Tory lead. Maybe.<\/p>\n

#2: An ageing population favours the Tories:<\/strong>
\nThis one\u2019s also a corker. It turns out that OAPs tend to vote Tory more than younger people, and OAPs as a general rule are a civic minded bunch who\u2019ll offer their OAP neighbours a lift to the polling station in their cars. So being a good OAP neighbour (especially if it\u2019s raining) means a Tory lead too. Possibly.<\/p>\n

#3: When things are bad, people vote the same as last time.<\/strong>
\nThis one actually tracks with the results (kind of). As a general rule, we see that when the economy is flat and people are worried about the future, they vote for more of the same. When things pick up and people are less worried, they vote for change. It\u2019s possibly why Churchill kept his job until after he\u2019d helped win the war. It’s also possibly how John Major managed to survive the recession but lose in the 90\u2019s boom. It\u2019s how Blair kept his job despite his unpopular decisions about war in Iraq, but Brown lost after the worst of the credit crunch was over and things seemed to be settling down. Er, okay.<\/p>\n

#4: Best groomed often wins (or the “Antony Eden factor”)<\/strong>
\nThis one is a bit controversial but as a general rule, a professional wardrobe and makeup artist can win elections. Scruffy Neil Kinnock vs. designer suit Mrs. Thatcher. Boring (but neat) John Major vs. Scruffy Kinnock. Good looking, sharp suited Tont Blair vs. ageing John Major and so on. (It’s sometimes referred to in terms of Antony Eden, one of the UK’s least successful Prime Ministers, who due to illness and prescription drugs suffered with a rather lop-sided face that allegedly put people off him because he looked a bit weird). Hmmm…<\/p>\n

#5: It doesn\u2019t matter anyway, most people vote the same way at least twice in a row, regardless.<\/strong>
\nIn the UK, just under 30% of the seats have never been any other colour than they are today. We\u2019ve also rarely seen a UK government and election winning PM with a single term of office in the last 85 years (except Ted Heath\u2019s 1970 Conservative administration, Gordon Brown doesn’t count because he never actually won a general election), all the other election results have gone in twos or threes. Yes but…
\n <\/p>\n

So the unscientific view is…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the too-close-to-call polls, the rules of thumb suggest:<\/p>\n

1. Rain is likely (at some point according to the forecasts)
\n2. There are more OAPs than last election
\n3. The economy is still flat, more austerity on the way, growth is low (etc.)
\n4. Ed Milliband’s bacon sandwich photo (not as well groomed as other leaders?)
\n5. Most people vote the same way at least twice in a row<\/p>\n

… the winner (by the most unscientific means possible, admittedly) should be another Conservative \/ Lib Dem coalition. But I\u2019ll caveat that by noting something else they used to bandy around the press room back in my day: “Predictions are a Mug\u2019s Game”<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a break from our usual focus on carbon reduction and renewable energy investment, this week I\u2019ve hijacked Renewable Money with a prediction about the UK general election tomorrow. You might not know that old hands from the politics circuit often used some very strange (but often accurate) election result predictors, and in a too-close-to-call […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2800,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[46,76,85],"class_list":["post-2798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-news","tag-opinion","tag-politics"],"yoast_head":"\n"Is it raining?" and other strange election result predictors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A review of the top 5 strange election result predictors... that often prove accurate despite being totally unscientific.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Is it raining?" and other strange election result predictors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A review of the top 5 strange election result predictors... that often prove accurate despite being totally unscientific.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"News and Events\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-05-06T16:16:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"615\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"409\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/\",\"name\":\"\\\"Is it raining?\\\" and other strange election result predictors\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-06T16:16:23+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/230c96fa1764157602f8abcc897c8914\"},\"description\":\"A review of the top 5 strange election result predictors... that often prove accurate despite being totally unscientific.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg\",\"width\":615,\"height\":409},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"“Is it raining?” and other strange election result predictors…\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"News and Events\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/230c96fa1764157602f8abcc897c8914\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ea991a5dfe413bf7551f7c7d940ace56e0ca566959a5a5853f83a266fe1bbdf5?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ea991a5dfe413bf7551f7c7d940ace56e0ca566959a5a5853f83a266fe1bbdf5?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/author\/admin_350ppm\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\"Is it raining?\" and other strange election result predictors","description":"A review of the top 5 strange election result predictors... that often prove accurate despite being totally unscientific.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"\"Is it raining?\" and other strange election result predictors","og_description":"A review of the top 5 strange election result predictors... that often prove accurate despite being totally unscientific.","og_url":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/","og_site_name":"News and Events","article_published_time":"2015-05-06T16:16:23+00:00","og_image":[{"width":615,"height":409,"url":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Estimated reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/","url":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/","name":"\"Is it raining?\" and other strange election result predictors","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg","datePublished":"2015-05-06T16:16:23+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/230c96fa1764157602f8abcc897c8914"},"description":"A review of the top 5 strange election result predictors... that often prove accurate despite being totally unscientific.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/polling_station.jpg","width":615,"height":409},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/is-it-raining-and-other-strange-election-result-predictors\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"“Is it raining?” and other strange election result predictors…"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/","name":"News and Events","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/230c96fa1764157602f8abcc897c8914","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ea991a5dfe413bf7551f7c7d940ace56e0ca566959a5a5853f83a266fe1bbdf5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ea991a5dfe413bf7551f7c7d940ace56e0ca566959a5a5853f83a266fe1bbdf5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog"],"url":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/author\/admin_350ppm\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/350ppm.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}